This is part one of a two part blog post on how I’ve changed the way that I approach events.
“Am I shit again?”
I’m a perennial 3–2 tournament player. My first ever event was 3–2 and my last one was 3–2. I’ve occasionally snuck a 4–1, and I’ve absolutely eaten my fair share of 2–3s. Every time I hit one of those rare 4–1s, I used to feel like I’d evolved like a Pokémon:
“Right. This is it. This is my new normal.”
And then, predictably, I’d get smashed. In 9th I went 4–1 with Tyranids… and then 1–4 in the very next event with a new list. I was devastated.
But over time, as I rethought my whole approach to event prep, I stopped expecting results — and I genuinely started playing better and feeling better.
I was fed up of feeling inadequate over a dice game. Then I just realised that there are so many variables in tournament 40k that it’s unreasonable to expect a specific result and then punish yourself when you don’t hit it.
This changed my mindset. This might sound wanky, but stick with me:
Put more faith in the decisions you make, and less pressure on your performance.
So You Want to Do Well… What Does That Actually Mean?
You’re going to an event. You’re sane. You want to do well.
Not “okay”. Well.
Which usually means: better than your usual results.
- If you’re normally 1–4, you want 2–3.
- If you’re 3–2, you want 4–1.
Great goal. Improvement is brilliant.
If you want a better result, you need to work for it, so let’s talk about what you can control.
What is under your control? What are your Controllable variables?
Here’s what you can influence:
- Your meta knowledge
- Your army and detachment choice
- Your list
- Your reps and familiarity with that list
- Your knowledge of the event (missions, terrain, timing)
- Your rest
- Your comfort (clothes, shoes, ergonomics)
- What you eat and drink
- Your travel and commute
Pretty long list — did you focus on all of these at your last event?
Tournament prep isn’t one muscle. It’s a bunch of tiny muscles that all require a lot of attention, time and creativity. Can you get an % boost via your diet or sleep routine? Do you have time for practice games? Is your physical stamina a hindrance?
Now Here’s What You Don’t Control
All of those factors above… but for five different opponents. You can master your prep — but you can’t make your opponents less prepared, less skilled, or less well-rested.
And then beyond that, there’s loads, but some factors might be:
- Your pairings
- When you face certain opponents
- Venue temperature and comfort (I’m still shivering from Nottingham GT 2025)
So here’s the point:
How can you confidently expect a tournament result when your uncontrollable variables outnumber your controllables by at least five to one?
You’re bringing one set of Skill + Prep + Stamina. The universe is bringing five and then some.
A More Honest Way to Think About Tournament Results
Here’s a simple, intuitive way to look at each game:
Game=(Your Skill+Your Prep+Your Stamina)−(Opp Skill+Opp Prepr+Opp Stamina)+Pairing Luck+Venue Comfort
And your event result is basically all five games added together:
Let’s get to the inevitable twist:
You didn’t underperform vs your expectation.
You just played inside a system where chaos owns more shares than you do. Having an expectation in a chaotic environment is a fool’s game. You can’t really ask chaos to give you the match ups you want (we know where that leads…).
What you can do is ask yourself if you were ready for the chaos? If you would like to know more about embracing chaos via our coaching service, please reach out!